Satellite Petrochemical (002648) Quarterly Report Comment: Q3 Net Profit Continues to Grow and Operating Cash Flow Improves Significantly

Satellite Petrochemical (002648) Quarterly Report Comment: Q3 Net Profit Continues to Grow and Operating Cash Flow Improves Significantly

Matters: The company’s 2019Q1-Q3 revenue is 80.

2.3 billion, previously +15.

8%, of which 28 in 2019Q3 revenue.

6.3 billion, +11 a year.

4%, MoM-6.

2%.

The company’s net profit attributable to the mother was 9Q1-Q3 2019.

2.2 billion, previously +48.

0%, of which the net profit of the parent is 3 in 2019Q3.

6.5 billion, previously +23.

3%, +8 from the previous quarter.

3%.

The increase in volume and price is the most important factor in the growth of this quarter.

  The widening of the PDH spread + the commissioning of new projects is the primary result of this quarter’s growth. 1) The PDH spread has widened: This year, due to the continued decline in prices, the PDH spread has continued to expand.

We estimate that the profit per ton of 2019Q3PDH will be as high as 1,630 yuan / ton, with a period of +641 yuan / ton, and a month-on-month increase of +956 yuan / ton; 2) New projects put into operation: the company’s second phase of PDH and PP projects were in February and May this yearPut into production, the same year as last year, millimeters and PP equivalent to contribute an additional 3 months of output, the same as Q2 ratio, starch production has not changed, but PP contributed 2 months of output.

  Acrylic acid and ester prices are at historically low levels. They continue to bottom out and are hardly affected by terminal demand. In 2019, the prices of acrylic acid and esters have been falling all the way. The prices of acrylic acid and esters in East China have fallen by 1700 yuan / ton since the beginning of the year.Profits are also greatly discounted. We estimate that the profit per tonne of acrylic acid in 2019Q3 is only 93 yuan / ton, compared with -312 yuan / ton in the past and -508 yuan / ton in the previous month.

At present, the price of acrylic acid is 6,杭州桑拿网900 yuan / ton, which is at the historical 17% quantile level. The price of butyl acrylate is 8,200 yuan / ton, which is at the historical 32% quantile level. The average price of acrylic acid and esters is at historically low levels.It is unlikely that the bottom will continue.

  Continue to increase investment in the United States ORBIT company, expand the project profit expected to end At the end of the reporting period, the company has additional investment in the United States ORBIT company.

800 million, with a cumulative investment of more than 1 billion.

According to our calculations, screening fractures are the most economical among the baselines of all route systems. The 2019 H1 split cost is 3841 yuan / ton, which is 2613 yuan / ton lower than MTO, 1122 yuan / ton lower than CTO and 1998 yuan lower than naphtha./Ton.
  This quarter’s operating cash flow improved significantly, reaching historical expectations. This quarter, the company’s net operating cash flow was as high as 13.

800 million, previously +12.

100 million, +12.

600 million, which is the highest net cash flow of the company in a single quarter since its listing. Initially it was 1) Decrease in bills receivable: bills receivable in the quarter9.

900 million, at least -6.

600 million, compared to -6.

600 million; 2) Increase in bills payable: bills payable this quarter7.

400 million, previously +7.

400 million, +1 chain.

700 million.

Increasing operating cash flow through accounts receivable and payable may reflect the company’s strong capital expansion needs.

  Earnings forecasts, projections, and investment ratings maintain 19/20/21 performance forecasts 13.
.

7/17.

7/30.

1 ppm, the current sustainable corresponding 19/20/21 PE is 10 respectively.

4/8.

0/4.
7x, maintain “Buy” rating.
  Risk Warning: Risk of plunging international oil prices; risk of continued decline in acrylic acid and ester prices; risk of continuous rebound in stock prices